¿Quiénes cambiaron de partido durante la Gran Recesión? Un estudio de 12 países de Europa occidental
- Rama, José 1
- Zanotti, Lisa 2
- 1 King’s College London, United Kingdom
- 2 Griffith University, Australia
ISSN: 0034-9712
Año de publicación: 2020
Volumen: 78
Número: 3
Tipo: Artículo
Otras publicaciones en: Revista internacional de sociología
Resumen
Levels of electoral volatility after the 2008 Great Recession were record in most Western European countries. The main causes of this electoral instability were the negative development of the economy, the crisis of the traditional political parties and the changes in the issues of political competition. At the individual level, it is not clear what factors lead voters to change partisan preferences after the Great Recession. In addition, in general terms, little is known about the differences between a stable voter and a volatile one. This study, for 12 Western European countries after the economic crisis, concludes that the economic voter model did not always explain the change of party preference after 2008, while sentiments of political dissatisfaction would help us to understand the change of parties between elections.
Referencias bibliográficas
- Arzheimer, K. 2015. “The AfD: Finally a successful Right-Wing Populist Eurosceptic party for Germany?”. West European Politics 38 (3): 535-556.
- Bartels, L. M. 2014. “Ideology and retrospection in electoral responses to the Great Recession”. Pp.185-223 en Mass politics in tough times. Opinions, voters and protest in the Great Recessions, editado por N. Bermeo y L. Bartels. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- Bartolini, S. 1986. “La volatilità elettorale”. Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica 16: 363-400.
- Bartolini, S. y P. Mair. 1990. From identity, competition and electoral availability: The stabilisation of European Electorales 1885-1985. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
- Bermeo, N., y L. Bartels. 2014. Mass politics in tough times. Opinions, voters and protest in the Great Recessions, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- Biezen (Van), I., P. Mair y T. Poguntke. 2012. “Going, going, . . . gone? The decline of party membership in contemporary Europe”. European Journal of Political Research 51 (1): 24-56.
- Birch, S. 2003. Electoral System and Political Transformation in Post-Communist Europe. Palgrave Macmillan, New York.
- Bischoff, C. S. 2013. “Electorally unstable by supply or demand? An examination of the causes of electoral volatility in advanced industrial democracies”. Public Choice 156(3/4): 537-561.
- Chiaramonte, A. y V. Emanuele. 2018. “Towards turbulent times: measuring and explaining party system (de-)institutionalization in Western Europe (1945-2015)”. Italian Political Science Review 49(1): 1-23.
- Chiaramonte, A. y V. Emanuele. 2017. “Party system volatility, regeneration and de-institutionalization in Western Europe (1945-2015)”. Party Politics 23(4):376-388.
- Dalton, R. J. 1984. “Cognitive mobilization and partisan dealignment in advanced industrial democracies”. The Journal of Politics 46 (1): 264-284.
- Dalton, R. J. 2000. “The decline of party identification”. Pp. 19-36 en Parties without partisans: Political change in advanced industrial democracies, editado por Dalton, R.J. y Wattenberg, M.P. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- Dalton, R. J. 2004. Democratic challenges, democratic choices: The erosion of political support in advanced industrial democracies. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- Dalton, R. J. 2007. “Partisan mobilization, cognitive mobilization and the changing American electorate”. Electoral Studies 26 (2): 274-286.
- Dalton, R. J. y M.P. Wattenberg. 2002. Parties without partisans: Political change in advanced industrial democracies, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- Dalton, R. J. y S.A. Weldon. 2005. “Public images of political parties: A necessary evil?”. West European Politics 28(5): 931-951.
- Dassonneville, R. 2012. “Electoral volatility, political sophistication, trust and efficacy: A study on changes in voter preferences during the Belgian Regional Elections of 2009”. Acta Politica 47 (1): 18-41.
- Dassonneville, R. 2013. “Questioning generational replacement. An age, period and cohort analysis of electoral volatility in the Netherlands, 1971-2010”. Electoral Studies 32 (1): 37-47.
- Dassonneville, R. y M. Hooghe. 2013. “Determinants of Electoral Volatility. Where did the N-VA find its Local Support?”, pp. 19-26 en: As Ever, In Between Elections editado por Vermeersch, W., Gent: Stichting Gerrit Kreveld.
- Dassonneville, R., A. Blais e Y. Dejaeghere. 2015. “Staying with the party, switching or exiting? A comparative analysis of determinants of party switching and abstaining”. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 25 (3): 387-405.
- Dassonneville, R. y M. Hooghe. 2017. “Economic indicators and electoral volatility: economic effects on electoral volatility in Western Europe, 1950-2013”. Comparative European Politics 15(6): 919-943.
- Dassonneville, R. y D. Stiers. 2018. “Electoral volatility in Belgium (2009-2014). Is there a difference between stable and volatile voters?”. Acta Política 53 (1): 68-97.
- Dassonneville, R. y M. Lewis-Beck. 2018. “A changing economic vote in Western Europe? Long-term vs. short-term forces”. European Political Science Review 11(1): 91-108.
- Dejaeghere, Y. y R. Dassonneville. 2016. “A comparative investigation into the effects of party-system variables on party switching using individual-level data”. Party Politics 23(2): 110-123.
- Downs, A. 1957. An economic theory of democracy. Harper Row, New York.
- Emanuele, V. 2015. “Dataset of electoral volatility and its internal components in Western Europe (1945-2015)”, Rome: Italian Center for Electoral Studies.
- Emanuele, V. 2018. Cleavages, institutions and competition. understanding vote nationalization in Western Europe (1965-2015), London-New York: ECPR press.
- Fernandes, J. M., P. Magalhães, y J. Santana-Pereira. 2018. “Portugal’s leftist Government: From sick man to poster boy?”. South European Society and Politics 23(4): 503-524.
- Franklin, M. 2004. Voter turnout and the dynamics of electoral competition in established democracies since 1945. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
- Franklin, M. N., T.T. Mackie, y H. Valen. 1992. Electoral Change: Responses to Evolving Social and Attitudinal Structures in Western Countries. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
- Geers, S. y J. Strömbäck. 2018. “Patterns of intra-election volatility: the impact of political knowledge”. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 29(3): 361-380
- Granberg, D. y S. Holanberg. 1990. “The Berelson paradox reconsidered: Intention-behavior changers in US and Swedish election campaigns”. Public Opinion Quarterly 54(4): 530-550.
- Gunther, R. y J. R. Montero. 2000. “Legitimacy, satisfaction and disaffection in new democracies”. Studies in Public Policy 0140-8240. Glasgow: Centre for the Study of Public Policy, University of Strathclyde.
- Hernández, E. y H. Kriesi. 2016. “The electoral consequences of the financial and economic crisis in Europe”. European Journal of Political Research 55(2): 203-224.
- Halikiopoulou, D. y T. Vlandas. 2015. “The rise of the far right in debtor and creditor European countries: The case of European Parliament Elections”. The Political Quarterly 86(2): 279-288.
- Hooghe, L. y G. Marks. 2017. “Cleavage theory meets Europe’s crises: Lipset, Rokkan, and the transnational cleavage”. Journal of European Public Policy 25(1): 109-135.
- Ignazi, P. 1996. “The crisis of parties and the rise of new political parties”. Party Politics 2(4): 549-556.
- Key, V.O. 1966. The Responsible Electorate: Rationality in Presidential Voting 1936-1960. Cambridge: Belknap Press.
- Kriesi, H. 2014. “The political consequences of the economic crisis in Europe: Electoral punishment and popular protest”, pp. 297-333 en Mass Politics in Tough Times. Opinions, voters and protest in the Great Recessions, editado por N. Bermeo, y L. Bartes. Oxford, Oxford University Press.
- Lago, I. y M. Torcal. 2018. “Electoral coordination and party system institutionalization”. Party Politics, 26(5): 570- 580.
- Lazarsfeld, P. F., B. R. Berelson y H. Gaudet. 1948. The people’s choice: How the voter makes up his mind in a presidential campaign. New York, NY: Columbia University Press.
- Lewis-Beck, M. S. y M. Stegmaier. 2000. “Economic determinants of electoral outcomes”. Annual Review of Political Science 3:183-219.
- Lewis-Beck, M. S., M. Costa Lobo y P. Bellucci. 2012 “Special Symposium: Economic Crisis and Elections: The European Periphery”, Electoral Studies, 31 (3): 469-642.
- Magalhaes, P. 2014. “Introduction - Financial crisis, austerity, and electoral politics”. Journal of Elections, Public Opinions and Parties 24(2): 125-133.
- Mainwaring, S., C. Gervasoni y A. España Najera. 2017. “Extra- and within-system electoral volatility”. Party Politics 23(6): 623-635.
- Maguire, M. 1983. “Is there still persistence? Electoral change in western europe, 1948-1979”. Pp. 67-94 en Western European Party Systems, editado por H. Daalder y P. Mair. Beverly Hills, Londres: SAGE Publications.
- Mair, P. 2013. Ruling the void: The hollowing of Western democracy. Verso Books, New York y London.
- Mondon, A. 2014. “The Front National in the twenty-first century: From Pariah to Republican Democratic Contender?”. Modern and Contemporary France 22(3):301-320.
- Monroe, K. R. 1979. “Econometric analysis of electoral behavior: A critical review”. Political Behaviour 1(2):137-173.
- Montero, J. R., R. Gunther y M. Torcal. 1999. “Legitimidad, descontento y desafección. El caso español”. Estudios Públicos 74: 107-149.
- Norpoth, H. 1996. “Of Time and Candidates A Forecast for 1996”. American Politics Research 24(4):443-467.
- Mudde, C. 2007. Populist Radical Right Parties in Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
- Pedersen, M. N. 1979. “The dynamics of European party systems: changing patterns of electoral volatility”. European Journal of political Research 7(1):1-26.
- Przeworski, A., S. C. Stokes y B. Manin. 1999. Democracy, accountability and representation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
- Pomper, G. M. 1972. “From confusion to clarity: issues and American voters, 1956-68”. American Political Science Review 66: 415-28.
- Powell, E. N. y J.A.Tucker. 2014. “Revisiting electoral volatility in Post-Communist countries: New data, new results and new approaches”. British Journal of Political Science 44 (1): 123-147.
- Roberts, K.M. y E. Wibbels. 1999. “Party systems and electoral volatility in Latin America: A test of economic, institutional, and structural explanations”. American Political Science Review 93(3): 575-590.
- Rose, R. y D. Urwin. 1970. “Persistence or change in Western party systems since 1945”. Political Studies 18(3): 287-319.
- Rose, R. y N. Munro. 2003. Elections and parties in New European Democracies, Washington D.C.: C.Q. Press.
- Sanders, D. 2003. “Party identification, economic perceptions, and voting in British general elections, 1974–97”. Electoral Studies 22 (2): 239-263.
- Schmuck, D., J. Matthes y H. Boomgaarden. 2016. “Austria: candidate-centered and anti-immigrant right-wing populism”. Pp. 85-98 en Populist political communication in Europe, editado por T. Aalberg, F. Esser, C. Reinemann, J. Strömbäck, y C.H. de Vreese. New York, Routledge.
- Sikk, A. (2005). “How Unstable? Volatility and the Genuinely New Parties in Eastern Europe”. European Journal of Political Research, 44 (3), 391-412.
- Söderlund, P. 2008. “Retrospective voting and electoral volatility: A nordic perspective”. Scandinavian Political Studies 31(2): 217-240.
- Thomassen, J. y M. Rosema. 2009. “Party identification revisited”. Pp. 42-95 en Political Parties and Partisanship. Social Identity and Individual Attitudes, editado por J. Bartle y P. Belluci. London y New York: Routledge.
- Torcal, M., y J. R. Montero. 2006. Political Disaffection in Contemporary Democracies. London: Routledge.
- Walczak, A., W. van der Broug y C. de Vries. 2012. “Long- and short-term determinants of party preferences: Inter-generational differences in Western and East Central Europe”. Electoral Studies 31(2): 273-284.
- Winter, N. 2014. “Combomarginsplot: Stata module to combine the saved results from multiple calls to margins into one marginsplot”. Statistical Software Components S457804, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Zelle, C. 1995. “Social dealignment versus political frustration: Contrasting explanations of the floating vote in Germany”. European Journal of Political Research 27(3): 319-345.