Análisis de la sostenibilidad financiera de las cajas rurales a través de modelos logit y regresión de cox. Propuesta de un indicador sintético de salud financiera

Resumen

The main objective of this doctoral thesis is the analysis of the mergers of Spanish Rural Banks (Cajas Rurales) in the context of a sectorial restructuration that seeks to preserve financial sustainability. We use a series of ratios that measure internal, sectoral and cyclical aspects. Two models (logit and Cox regression) have been estimated. Both models show that mergers had their origin in the financial sustainability of the entities involved. The determinant factor being size, profitability, business and the economic situation of each entity. The use of this type of models has been criticized because it is thought that deterioration could be measure through dichotomous variables, when it is a continuous event over time. For this reason this thesis proposes a synthetic indicator to evaluate the financial soundness of the entities analyzed, with the capacity to differentiate between Rural Banks whose financial viability was threatened.