Descripción, análisis y simulación de procesos forestales en el estado de México mediante tecnologías de la información geográfica

Zusammenfassung

Mexico is one of the most biodiversity countries in the world. Its geographical location, topography, soil types and variety of climates make the necessary conditions exist for the presence of various forest ecosystems, which are essential for the environmental services they offer to their own natural environment and society in particular. However, these ecosystems have been altered and changed substantially in recent decades and are relatively few areas of forest, temperate or tropical, which are unchanged. Deforestation and its impact on other natural resources such as water and soil are increasingly common in various regions of the country. In this sense, this doctoral thesis proposes a comprehensive methodology for description, analysis and simulation of some forest processes present in a region of Central Mexico, particularly in the State of Mexico. To achieve this, some analytical techniques and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are applied. The work has three specific objectives that lead, complementary and sequentially, the methodological stages in which this thesis is structured. First of all, it determines the land use and cover change occurred between 1993 and 2000. Secondly, it aims to investigate which factors are related with the changes already mentioned, using multiple linear regression models, geographically weighted regression and logistic regression. And thirdly, it proposes a methodology for evaluating the location of optimal zones for commercial forest plantations, restoration, protection and agroforestry through the integrated use of techniques of Multicriteria Evaluation (EMC) and GIS. The results show that temperate and tropical forests suffered a significant decline in tree density, which was replaced by secondary vegetation, mainly shrubs. Similarly, there were forest areas converted to other non-forest cover. By contrast, although in smaller quantities, some changes denoting recovery and revegetation were observed. In turn, the regression models suggest that certain human activities are related to the loss of some forest areas. The geographically weighted model was a novel approach to explore and describe the relationships of spatial variability in the territory. Finally, the regulatory model results indicate that such simulations can serve as a reference for more realistic projects of reforestation and thus achieve a more sustainable forest planning.