Kazajstánsucesión presidencial e inestabilidad política en un Estado neopatrimonial

  1. Rubén Ruiz Ramas 1
  1. 1 Sun Yat-sen University
    info

    Sun Yat-sen University

    Cantón, China

    ROR https://ror.org/0064kty71

Revue:
RESI: Revista de estudios en seguridad internacional

ISSN: 2444-6157

Année de publication: 2018

Volumen: 4

Número: 2

Pages: 81-98

Type: Article

DOI: 10.18847/1.8.6 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openDialnet editor

D'autres publications dans: RESI: Revista de estudios en seguridad internacional

Objectifs de Développement Durable

Résumé

The refusal of Nursultan Nazarbayev, both to designate his future successor and to strengthen the institutions that can take responsibility for this task, fuel the potential for conflict attached to the future context of succession. The horizon of the transfer of power concerns Nazarbayev, who in July 2018 reaches 78 years old. The sources of concern are related not only to Nazarbayev’s family safety but also to the risk of confrontation among the elite networks and their social, ethnic and regional power basis. A kind of political instability vulnerable to escalation to major threatens to the national and even regional security. On the one hand, this article aims to analyse the structural vulnerability of Kazakhstan to a context of presidential succession product of its nature as an authoritarian regime and a neopatrimonial state. On the other hand, the paper also tackles the preparation of that context by the authorities and the options available to deal with the transfer of power. To this end, the paper begins with an analysis of the neopatrimonial state heterogeneity in Central Asia, followed by a section focused on the specific nature of the authoritarianism and neopatrimonialism in Kazakhstan. Finally, it elaborates the Kazakh context of succession, and the several options of transfer of power and the likely actors involved in them are examined.

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La source de données: Dialnet