Revisión y análisis de estudios de modelos de cambios de usos del suelo y de escenarios a futuro

  1. Marta Gallardo 1
  1. 1 Universidad de Murcia
    info

    Universidad de Murcia

    Murcia, España

    ROR https://ror.org/03p3aeb86

Revista:
Geographicalia

ISSN: 0210-8380 2386-3021

Año de publicación: 2018

Número: 70

Páginas: 1-26

Tipo: Artículo

DOI: 10.26754/OJS_GEOPH/GEOPH.2018703278 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openDialnet editor

Otras publicaciones en: Geographicalia

Resumen

En las últimas décadas se ha producido un gran desarrollo de técnicas y modelos para la captura y el análisis de dinámicas de usos del suelo. Dicho interés se demuestra en los diversos programas institucionales y las numerosas investigaciones que se han llevado a cabo con el objeto principal de valorar y abordar un desarrollo sostenible del territorio. La sostenibilidad tiene implicaciones muy diversas, por lo que dichos estudios son también muy variados dependiendo del objetivo que se pretende alcanzar. Los modelos se han hecho cada vez más complejos, desde simples extrapolaciones a modelos estadísticos-matemáticos que compilan varias técnicas. Se presenta una revisión bibliográfica de trabajos sobre modelos de cambios de usos del suelo y de escenarios a futuro. Se definen las grandes tipologías de modelos que existen, las metodologías, factores explicativos, temáticas y modelos empleados, internacionalmente y en España. Se presentan también los grandes problemas y retos que afronta esta materia

Referencias bibliográficas

  • Abd El-Kawy, O.R., Rød, J.K., Ismail, H.A. y Suliman, A.S., 2011. Land use and land cover change detection in the western Nile delta of Egypt using remote sensing data. Applied Geography 31, pp. 483-494. Doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2010.10.012
  • Alcamo, J., Kok, K., Busch, G. y Priess, J.A., 2006. Searching from the future of land: scenarios from the local to global scale. En: Lambin, E.F. y Geist, H.J. (eds), Land-use and land-cover change. Local processes and Global Impacts, Berlin: Springer, pp. 137-156. Doi: 10.1007/3-540-32202-7
  • Agarwal, C., Green, G.L., Grove, J.M., Evans, T. y Schweik, C., 2002. A review and assessment of land use change models. Dynamics of space, time and human choice, Gen. Tech. Rep. NE-297. Pennsylvania, Department of Agriculture, Forest Services, Northeastern Research Station, 61 p.
  • Aguilera, F., Ruiz Matarán, A., Campaña Pérez, R. y Montes Valenzuela, L.M., 2008. Simulating greenhouse growth in urban zoning on the coast of Granada (Spain). En: Paegelow, M. y Camacho Olmedo, M.T. (eds), Modelling Environmental Dynamics. Advances in Geomatic Solutions, Berlin Heidelberg: Springer, pp. 269-295. Doi: 10.1007/978-3-540-68498-5
  • Aguilera-Benanvente, F., Botequilha-Leitao, A. y Díaz-Varela, E., 2014. Detectiong multi-scale urban growth patterns and processes in the Algarve region (Southern Portugal). Applied Geography, 53, pp. 234-245. Doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2014.06.019
  • Barreira-Gonzalez, P., Gómez-Delgado, M. y Aguilera-Benavente, F., 2015. From raster to vector cellular automata models: a new approach to simulate urban growth with the help of graph theory. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 54, pp. 119-131. Doi: 10.1016/j.compen vurbsys.2015.07.004
  • Bell, E.J., 1974. Markov analysis of land use change – an application of stochastic processes to remotely sensed data. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 8, pp. 311-316.
  • Briassoulis, H., 2000. Analysis of Land Use Change: Theoretical and Modeling Approaches. En: Loveridge, S. (ed), The Web Book of Regional Science. Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University. http://www.rri.wvu.edu/WebBook/Briassoulis/contents.htm
  • Busch, G., 2006. Future European agricultural landscapes. What can we learn from existing quantitative land use scenarios studies? Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 114, pp. 121-140. Doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2005.11.007
  • Conway, T.M., 2009. The impact of class resolution in land use change models. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 33, pp. 269-277. Doi: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2009.02.001
  • Deng, Y. y Srinivasan, S., 2016. Urban land use change and regional access: a case study in Beijing, China. Habitat international, 51, pp. 103-113. Doi: 10.1016/j.habitatint.2015.09.007
  • Díaz-Pacheco, J y García-Palomares, J.C., 2014. A highly detailed land-use vector map for Madrid region based on photo-interpretation. Journal of Maps, 10(3), pp. 424-433. Doi: 10.1080/ 17445647.2014.882798
  • Eitelberg, D.A., van Vliet J., Doelman, J.C., Stehfest, E. y Verburg, P.H., 2016. Demand for biodiversity protection and carbon storage as drivers of global land change scenarios. Global Environmental Change, 40, pp. 101-111. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.014
  • ESPON, 2007. Scenarios on the territorial future of Europe. Belgium: ESPON 2006 Programme.
  • Gallardo, M. y Martínez-Vega, J., 2016. Three decades of land-use changes in the region of Madrid and how they relate to territorial planning. European Planning Studies, 24(5), pp. 1016-1033. Doi: 10.1080/09654313.2016.1139059
  • Gallardo, M y Martínez-Vega, J., 2018. Modelling land-use scenarios in protected areas of an urban region in Spain. En: Camacho Olmedo, M.T., Paegelow, M., Mas, J.F. y Escobar, F. (eds). Geomatic simulations and scenarios for modelling LUCC: A review and comparison of modelling techniques. Springer, pp. 307-328. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-60801-3
  • García, A.M., Santé, I., Boullón, M. y Crecente, R., 2012. A comparative analysis of cellular automata models for simulation of small urban areas in Galicia, NW Spain. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 36 (4), pp. 291-301. Doi: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2012.01.001
  • Geoghegan, J., Pritchard, L.J., Ogneva-Himmelberger, Y., Chowdhury, R.R., Sanderson, S. y Turner, B.L.I., 1998. Socializing the pixel and Pixelizing the Social in land-use and land-cover change. En: N.R.C. Staff (ed), People and Pixels: Linking remote sensing and social science. Washington, D.C.: National Academies Press, pp. 51-69.
  • Gidey, E., Dikinya, O., Sebego, R., Segosebe, E. y Zenebe, A., 2017. Modeling the spatio-temporal dynamics and evolution of land use and land cover (1984-2015) using remote sensing and GIS in Raya, Northern Ethiopia. Modeling Earth Systems and Environments, 3(4), pp. 1285- 1301. doi: 10.1007/s40808-017-0375-z
  • Hagen-Zanker, A., 2006. Map comparison methods that simultaneously address overlap and structure. Journal of Geographical Systems, 8, pp. 165-185. Doi: 10.1007/s10109-006-0024-y
  • Henríquez, C., Azócar, G. y Aguayo, M., 2006. Cambio de uso del suelo y escorrentía superficial: aplicación de un modelo de simulación espacial en Los Angeles, VIII Region del Biobío, Chile. Revista de Geografía Norte Grande, 36, pp. 61-74. Doi: 10.4067/S0718-34022006000200004
  • Hewitt, R., van Delden, H. y Escobar, F., 2014. Participatory land use modelling, pathways to an integrated approach. Environmental Modelling & Software, 52, pp. 149-164. Doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.10.019
  • Jokar Arsanjani, J., Helbich, M., Kainz, W. y Darvishi Boloorani, A., 2013. Integration of logistic regression, Markov chain and cellular autómata models to simulate urban expansion. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 21, pp. 265-275. Doi: 10.1016/j.jag.2011.12.014
  • Kok K. y van Delden H., 2013. Linking Narrative Storylines and Quantitative Models to Combat Desertification in the Guadalentín Watershed (Spain). En: Giaoutzi M. y Sapio B. (eds) Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies. Complex Networks and Dynamic Systems, vol 1. Boston: Springer. doi: 10.1007/978-1-4614-5215-7_13
  • Koo, H., Kleemann, J. y Fürst, C., 2018. Land use scenario modeling based on local knowledge for the provision of ecosystem services in Northern Ghana. Land, 7, p. 59. Doi:10.3390/land7020059
  • Ku, C.A., 2016. Incorporating spatial regression model intro cellular automata for simulating land use change. Applied Geography, 69, pp. 1-9. Doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2016.02.005
  • Lambin, E.F. y Geist, H.J. (eds), 2006. Land-use and land-cover change. Local processes and global impacts. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: 10.1007/3-540-32202-7
  • Lawler, J.J., Lewis, D.J., Nelson, E., Plantinga, A.J., Polasky, S., Withney, J.C., Helmers, D.P., Martinuzzi, S., Pnnington, D. y Radeloff, V.C., 2014. Projected land-use change impacts on eco sys tems services in the United States. PNAS, 11 (20), pp. 7492-7497. Doi: 10.1073/pnas.1405557111
  • Li, X., y Yeh, A.G., 2002. Neural-network-based cellular automata for simulating multiple land use changes using GIS. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 16, pp. 323- 343. Doi: 10.1080/13658810210137004
  • Lima, L., Zelaya, K., Laterra, P., Massone, H. y Maceira, N., 2011. A dynamic simulation model of land cover in the Dulce Creek Basin, Argentina. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 7, pp. 194-199. Doi: 10.1016/j.proenv.2011.07.034
  • Malek, Z, Verburg, P.H. y Geijzendorffer, I.R., 2018. Global change effects on land management in the Mediterranean region. Global Environmental Change, 50, pp. 238-254. doi: 10.1016/ j.gloenvcha.2018.04.007
  • Martínez-Fernández, J., Ruiz-Benito. P. y Zavala, M.A., 2015. Recent land cover changes in Spain across biogeographical regions and protection levels: Implications for conservation policies. Land Use Policy, 44, pp. 62-75. Doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.11.021
  • Martinuzzi, S., Radeloff, V.C., Joppa, L.N., Hamilton, C.M., Helmers, D.P., Plantinga, D.P. y Lewis, D.J., 2015. Scenarios of future land use change around United States’ protected areas. Biological Conservation, 184, pp. 446-455. Doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2015.02.015
  • McDonald, R.I. y Urban, D.L., 2006. Spatially varying rules of landscape change: lessons from a case study. Landscape and Urban Planning, 74, pp. 7-20. Doi: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2004.08.005
  • Moore, I.D., Lee, B.G. y Davey, S.M., 1991. A new method for predicting vegetation distributions using decision tree analysis in a geographic information system. Environmental Management, 15, pp. 59-71. Doi: 10.1007/BF02393838
  • Otto, R., Krüsi, B.O. y Kienast, F., 2007. Degradation of an arid coastal landscape in relation to land use changes in Southern Tenerife (Canary Islands). Journal of Arid Environments, 70, pp. 527-539. 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2007.02.001
  • Overmars, K.P., Verburg, P.H. y Veldkamp, T., 2007. Comparison of a deductive and an inductive approach to specify land suitability in a spatially explicit land use model. Land Use Policy, 24, pp. 584-599. Doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2005.09.008
  • Paegelow, M., Camacho, M.T. y Menor, J., 2003. Cadenas de Markov, evaluación multicriterio y evaluación multiobjetivo para la modelización prospectiva del paisaje. Geofocus, 3, pp. 24-44.
  • Parker, D.C., Berger T. y Manson, S.M., 2002. Agent-based models of Land use and Land-cover change. LULC Report Series No.6. Louvain-la-Nueve, LUCC International Project Office.
  • Peña, J., Bonet, A., Bellot, J., Sánchez, J.R., Eisenhulth, D., Hallett, S. y Aledo, A., 2007. Driving forces of land-use change in a cultural landscape of Spain. En: Koomen, K., Stillwell, J., Bakema, A. y Scholten, H.J. (eds) Modelling land-use change. Progress and applications. Springer Netherlands, pp. 97-115. Doi: 10.1007/978-1-4020-5648-2
  • Plata Rocha, W., Gómez Delgado, M. y Bosque Sendra, J., 2010. Desarrollo de modelos de crecimiento urbano óptimo para la Comunidad de Madrid aplicando métodos de evaluación multicriterio y Sistemas de Información Geográfica. Geofocus, 10, pp. 103-134.
  • Pontius Jr, R.G., Huffaker, D. y Denman, K., 2004. Useful techniques of validation for spatially explicit land-change models. Ecological Modelling, 179, pp. 445-461. Doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.05.010
  • Pontius Jr, R.G., Boersma, W. Castella, J.C., Clarke, K., De Nijs, T.C.M., Dietzel, C., Duan, Z., Fotsing, E., Goldstein, N., Kok, K., Koomen, E., Lippitt, C.D., McConnell, W., Sood, A.M., Pijanowski, B., Pithadia, S., Sweeney, S., Trung, T.N. Veldkamp, A.T. y Verburg, P.H., 2008. Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change. Annals of Regional Science, 42, pp. 11-37. Doi: 10.1007/s00168-007-0138-2
  • Rae, C., Rothley, K. y Dragicevic, S., 2007. Implications of error and uncertainty for an environmental planning scenario: A sensitivity analysis of GIS-based variables in a reserve design exercise. Landscape and Urban Planning, 79, pp. 210-217. Doi: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2006.01.001
  • Redondo-Vega, J.M., Gómez-Villar, A., Santos-González, J., González-Gutiérrez, R.B., y ÁlvarezMartínez, J., 2017. Changes in land use due to mining in the north-western mountains of Spain during the previous 50 years. Catena, 149, pp. 844-856. Doi: 10.1016/j.catena.2016.03.017
  • Reid, R.S., Tomich, T.P., Xu, J.C., Geist, H.J. y Mather, A.S., 2006. Linking land-change science and policy: current lessons and future integration. En: Lambin, E.F. y Geis, H.J. (eds) Land-use and land-cover change. Local processes and Global Impacts, Berlin: Springer, pp. 157-172. Doi: 10.1007/3-540-32202-7
  • Rindfuss, R.R., Walsh, S.J., Turner, B.L.I., Fox, J. y Mishra, V., 2004. Developing a science of land change: challenges and methodological issues. PNAS, 101, pp. 13976-13981. Doi: 10.1073/ pnas.0401545101
  • Romano, B., Zullo, F., Fiorini, L., Marucci, A. y Ciabò, S., 2017. Land transformation of Italy due to half a century of urbanization. Land use policy, 67, pp. 387-400. Doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.06.006
  • Rounsevell, M.D.A., Pedroli, B., Erb, K.H., Gramberger, M., Busck, A.G., Haberl, H., Kristensen, S., Kuemmerle, T., Lavorel, S., Lindner, M., LotzeCampen, H., Metzger, M.J., Murray-Rust, D., Popp, A., Pérez-Soba, M., Reenberg, A. Vadineanu, A., Verburg, P.H. y Wolfslehner, B., 2012. Challenges for land system science. Land Use Policy, 29, pp. 899-910. Doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2012.01.007
  • Ruescas, A.B., 2001. Análisis de la dinámica espacio-temporal de los usos del suelo mediante SIG: la cabecera de la cuenca de Canyoles. Cuadernos de Geografía, 69, pp. 251-230.
  • Sangermano, F., Toledano, J., y Eastman, J.R., 2012. Land cover change in the Bolivian Amazon and its implications for REDD+ and endemic biodiversity. Landscape Ecology, 27, pp. 871-584. Doi: 10.1007/s10980-012-9710-y
  • Santé, I., García, A.M., Miranda, D. y Crecente, R., 2010. Cellular automata models for the simulation of real-word urban processes: A review and analysis. Landscape and Urban Planning, 96, pp. 108-122. Doi: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2010.03.001
  • Serra, P., Pons, X. y Sauri, D., 2008. Land-cover and land-use change in a Mediterranean landscape: a spatial analysis of driving forces integrating biophysical and human factors. Applied Geography, 20, pp. 189-209. Doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2008.02.001
  • Sohl, T., Wimberly, M.C., Radeloff, V.C., Theobald, D.M. y Sleeter, B.M., 2016. Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios. Ecological Modelling, 337, pp. 281-297. Doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.07.016
  • Titeux, N., Henle, K., Mihoub. J.B., Regos, A., Geizendorffer, I.R., Cramer, W., Verburg, P.H. y Brotons, L., 2017. Global scenarios for biodiversity need to better integrate climate and land use change. Diversity and Distributions, 23, pp. 1231-1234. doi: 10.1111/ddi.12624
  • Tobler, W., 1970. A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region. Economic Geo graphy, 46 (2), pp. 234-240.
  • Turner, M.G., Gardner, R.H. y O’Neill, R.V., 2001. Landscape ecology in theory and practice. Pattern and process. New York: Springer-Verlag.
  • Vafeidis, A.T., Kokoulas, S., Gatsis, I. y Gkoltsiou, K., 2007. Forecasting land use changes with the use of neuronal networks and GIS. 2007 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, Barcelona, pp. 5068-5071, doi: 10.1109/IGARSS.2007.4424001
  • Valbuena, D., Verburg, P.H., y Bregt, A.K., 2008. A method to define a typology for agent-based analysis in regional land-use research. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 128, pp. 27-36. Doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2008.04.015
  • Veldkamp, A., y Fresco, L.O., 1997. Exploring land use scenarios, an alternative approach based on actual land use. Agricultural Systems, 55, pp. 1-17. Doi: 10.1016/S0308-521X(95)00079-K
  • Veldkamp, A., y Lambin, E.F., 2001. Predicting land-use change. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 85, pp. 1-6. Doi. 10.1016/S0167-8809(01)00199-2
  • Verburg, P.H., Ritsema van Eck, J., De Nijs, T.C.M., Dijst, M.J. y Schot, P., 2004a. Determinants of land-use change patterns in the Netherlands. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 31, pp. 125-150. Doi: 10.1068/b307
  • Verburg, P.H., Schot, P.P, Dijst, M.J. y Veldkamp, A., 2004b. Land use change modelling: current practice and research priorities. GeoJournal, 61, pp. 309-324. Doi: 10.1007/s10708-004-4946-y
  • Verburg, P.H., Kok, K., Pontius Jr, R.G. y Veldkamp, A., 2006a. Modeling land-use and land-cover change. En: Lambin, E.F. y Geist, H.J. (eds). Land-use and land-cover change. Local processes and Global Impacts. Berlin: Springer, pp. 117-135. Doi: 10.1007/3-540-32202-7
  • Verburg, P.H., Rounsevell, M.D.A y Veldkamp, A., 2006b. Scenario-based studies of future land use in Europe. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 114, pp. 1-6. Doi: 10.1016/j.agee. 2005. 11.023
  • Verburg, P.H., Schulp, C.J.E., Witte, N. y Veldkamp, A., 2006c. Downscaling of land use change scenarios to assess the dynamics of European landscapes. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 114, pp. 39-56. Doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2005.11.024
  • Wassenaar, T., Gerber, P., Verburg, P.H., Rosales, M., Ibrahim, M. y Steinfeld, H., 2007. Projecting land use changes in the Neotropics: The geography of pasture expansion into forest. Global Environmental Change, 17, pp. 86-104. Doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.03.007
  • Xu, C. Haase, D. y Pauleit, S., 2018. The impact of different urban dynamics on green space availability: a multiple scenario modeling approach for the region of Munich, Germany. Ecological Indicators, 93, pp. 1-12. Doi: g/10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.04.058