The end of the wheat problem?the functioning and evolution of the world wheat market, 1939-2010

  1. Ángel Luis González-Esteban 1
  1. 1 Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia
    info

    Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia

    Madrid, España

    ROR https://ror.org/02msb5n36

Revista:
Investigaciones de Historia Económica = Economic History Research

ISSN: 1698-6989

Año de publicación: 2023

Volumen: 19

Número: 1

Páginas: 62-74

Tipo: Artículo

DOI: 10.33231/J.IHE.2022.10.002 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openAcceso abierto editor

Otras publicaciones en: Investigaciones de Historia Económica = Economic History Research

Objetivos de desarrollo sostenible

Resumen

The outlook for the world wheat economy immediately before the Second World War was not very encourag-ing. Trade and prices had plummeted during the 1930s and many interventionist measures had been under-taken worldwide in order to deal with the so called “wheat problem”. However, the world wheat trade in 2010 was almost ten times greater than it was in the postwar years and the signs of market disintegration had dis-appeared. This paper analyses the reasons behind the extraordinary expansion of the world wheat trade be-tween 1939 and 2010, explores the main changes in the distribution of wheat exchanges and offers an in-formed explanation of those transformations. The discussion focuses on supply and demand variables, including institutional variables such as national agricultural policies, international agreements and the changing international context

Referencias bibliográficas

  • Anderson, K., Rausser, G. and Swinnen, J. (2013). “Political Economy of Public Policies: Insights from Distortions to Agricultural and Food Markets”, Journal of Economic Literature, 51 (2), 423-477.
  • Aparicio, G. and Pinilla, V. (2015). The dynamics of international trade in cereals, 1900-1938. DT-SEHA n. 1504. Sociedad Española de Historia Agraria.
  • Burkitbayeva, S. and Kerr, W. A. (2013). The Accession of Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine to the WTO: What will it Mean for the World Trade in Wheat?. Commissioned Papers 158891. Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.
  • Byerlee, D. (1987). “The Political Economy of Third World Food Imports: The Case of Wheat”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 35 (2), 307-328.
  • Callear, D. L. and Blandford, D. (1981). Food Security and the International Wheat Agreements. 81-11. Ithaca: Dept. of Agricultural Economics.
  • Chabot, P. and Dorosh, P.A. (2007). “Wheat markets, food aid and food security in Afghanistan”, Food Policy, 32 (3), 334-353.
  • Collantes, F. (2020). The Political Economy of the Common Agricultural Policy: Coordinated Capitalism or Bureaucratic Monster? London: Routledge.
  • Collingham, L. (2011). The Taste of War: World War II and the Battle for Food. New York: Penguin Press.
  • FAO (1947). The State of Food and Agriculture 1947. Geneva: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
  • FAO (2000). The State of Food and Agriculture 2000. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
  • Federico, G. (2005). Feeding the World: An Economic History of Agriculture, 1800-2000. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Friedmann, H. (1993). “The Political Economy of Food: a Global Crisis”, New Left Review, 197, 29-57.
  • GATT (1958). Trends in International Trade. Report by a Panel of Experts. Geneva: The Contracting Parties of the General Agreements on Tariffs and Trade.
  • González-Esteban, Á. L. (2014). “Nuevos paradigmas agrarios: una aproximación a los fundamentos teóricos de la «soberanía alimentaria»”, Historia Agraria, 64, 131-159.
  • González-Esteban, Á. L. (2017a). Essays on the world wheat economy (1939-2010). Universitat de Barcelona.
  • González-Esteban, Á. L. (2017b). “Why wheat? International patterns of wheat demand, 1939-2010”, Investigaciones de Historia Económica, 13 (3), 135-150.
  • González-Esteban, Á. L. (2018). “Patterns of world wheat trade, 1945- 2010: The long hangover from the second food regime”, Journal of Agrarian Change, 18 (1), 87-111.
  • González-Esteban, Á. L. (2021). “The determinants of world wheat trade, 1963-2010: A gravity equation approach”, Historia Agraria, 83: 165-190.
  • González-Esteban, Á. L. and Botella, E. (2022). “The agricultural productivity gap: A global vision”, Economic History of Developing Regions, 37, 257-287.
  • González-Esteban, Á. L., Pinilla, V. and Serrano, R. (2016) «International Agricultural Markets after the War, 1945-1960», in C. Martiin, and J. Pan-Montojo (eds.). Agriculture in Capitalist Europe, 1945-1960: From food shortages to food surpluses. Rural Worlds: Economic, Social and Cultural Histories of Agricultures and Rural Societies. Routledge, pp. 64-84.
  • Götz, L., Glauben, T. and Brümmer, B. (2013). “Wheat export restrictions and domestic market effects in Russia and Ukraine during the food crisis”, Food Policy, 38, 214-226.
  • Grilli, E. R. and Maw Cheng Yang (1988). “Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows”, The World Bank Economic Review, 2 (1), 1-47.
  • Hathaway, D. (1987). Agriculture and the GATT: Rewriting the Rules. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics.
  • de Hevesy, P. (1940). World Wheat Planning and Economic Planning in General. London: Oxford University Press.
  • Jabara, C. L. (1981). “Interaction of Japanese rice and wheat policy and the impact on trade”, Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 13 (2), 133-139.
  • Koning, N. (2002). The failure of agrarian capitalism. Agrarian politics in the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands and the USA, 1846- 1919. London; New York: Routledge.
  • Koning, N. (2017). Food Security, Agricultural Policies and Economic Growth. Long-term Dynamics in the Past, Present and Future. Oxon: Routledge.
  • Krueger, A. O., Schiff, M. and Valdés, A. (1988). “Agricultural Incentives in Developing Countries: Measuring the Effect of Sectoral and Economywide Policies”, The World Bank Economic Review, 2 (3), 255-271.
  • Malembaum, W. (1953). The World Wheat Economy, 1885-1939. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
  • Mitchell, D. and Mielke, M. (2005). «Wheat: the global market, policies and priorities», in M. A. Aksoy and J. C.Beghin (eds.). Global Agricultural Trade and Developing Countries. Washington DC: The World Bank. pp. 195-214.
  • Morgan, D. (1979). Merchants of Grain. London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson.
  • O’Connor, C. (1982). “Going Against the Grain: The Regulation of the International Wheat Trade from 1933 to the 1980 Soviet Grain Embargo”, Boston College International and Comparative Law Review, 5 (1), 225-270.
  • Prebisch, R. (1950). The Economic Development of Latin America and Its Principal Problems. Lake Success: United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America.
  • Rausser, G. (1995). GATT Negotiations and the Political Economy of Policy Reform. New York: Springer.
  • Rozelle, S. and Huang, J. (1998). Wheat in China: Supply, Demand, and Trade in the Twenty-First Century. Special Report No. 3. Beijing.
  • Serrano, R. and Pinilla, V. (2010). “Causes of world trade growth in agricultural and food products, 1951-2000: a demand function approach”, Applied Economics, 42 (27), 3503-3518.
  • Shalaby, S., Yanagida, J.F. and Hassler, J.B. (1988). “United States Market Share of Latin American Wheat Imports: Disaggregated Analysis and Application of the Armington Model”, Journal of Economic Studies, 15 (5), 24-33.
  • Singer, H. W. (1950). “The Distribution of Gains between Investing and Borrowing Countries”, The American Economic Review, 40 (2), 473- 485.
  • Son, J. S. (1986). Wheat Imports and Cheap Food Policy in Korea. Michigan State University.
  • Srinivasan, P. V. and Jha, S. (2001). “Liberalized trade and domestic price stability. The case of rice and wheat in India”, Journal of Development Economics, 65 (2), 417-441.
  • Timmer, P. C. (1989). “Food Price Policy: the Rational for government intervention”, Food Policy, 14 (7), 17-27.
  • Timmer, P. C. (2013) «Reflections on the role of agriculture in the structural transformation: a macro-micro perspective», in E. Hillbom and P. Svensson (eds.). Agricultural Transformation in a Global History Perspective. London; New York: Routledge. pp. 311-326.
  • Tracy, M. (1964). Agriculture in Western Europe. New York: Praeger.
  • Tyagi, D. S. (1990). Managing India’s Food Economy: Problems and Alternatives. New Delhi: Sage.
  • Wilson, W. W., Johnson, D. D. and Dahl, B. L. (eds.) (1999). Transparency and Export Subsidies in International Wheat Competition. Agricultural Economics Report, 415. Department of Agricultural Economics. North Dakota State University.
  • Yamada, H. and Yoon, G. (2014). “When Grilli and Yang meet Prebisch and Singer: Piecewise linear trends in primary commodity prices”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 42 (C), 193-207.
  • Young, L.M. (2000). A Perspective On Oregon Wheat Growers’ Interests In The Millennium Round Of Agricultural Trade Negotiations. Research Discussion Papers, 39. Montana State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics, Trade Research Center.