Probabilidad de detección de cárteles en Españauna estimación

1. Javier GARCÍA-VERDUGO
2. Carlos MERINO TRONCOSO
3. Ane Miren MARTÍN

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Resumen

The probability of detecting cartels is fundamental with a view to setting deterrent sanctions. Bryant and Eckard (1991) estimated it for the United States between 13% and 17%, and with the same approach, Combe et al. (2008) they estimated it for Europe between 12.9% and 13.3%. This article uses the same model to estimate the probability of detection of cartels in Spain, using the maximum likelihood method, at 10.7%. This probability supposes an upper limit for the probability of real detection, since the model used would only allow to calculate the probability of a cartel being destroyed, without being able to differentiate whether it was due to the work of the competition authorities or for other reasons.

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