Ciencia de datos aplicada al análisis y mejora de la carrera del árbitro de fútbol y propuesta de políticas federativas basadas en la Economía del Comportamiento.

Abstract

The relevance of the figure of the football referee reaches three social dimensions: sports practice, football business and healthy habits. In relation to the first, the football referee is considered another athlete who is expected to keep physical and mental preparation at the level of the players in the category in which they play. As for the football business, the referee is a guarantee of justice in the application of the rules and a requisite for the continuation of the competitions. Finally, its influence on habits takes place both by constituting a career where athletic preparation becomes a way of life, and by the aspect of social values, given the respect that referees should inspire to athletes, fans, and media. The number of candidates for football referees in different categories has been declining, threatening to paralyze competitions or lower the quality of refereeing. This decay is a result of both the shortage of young people willing to start a referee career and the number of referees who abandon it. Both aspects represent a drain on the resources of the federations, both in terms of recruitment and training (Chapter One of the thesis). Football federations will find in this thesis the value of how identifying the factors that the referee's decision to start or continue his career depends on, thus making it possible to continue the competitions, from youth to professional football, as well as the normal functioning of the show and the economic sector behind it. This is therefore a study of a social subject where the decisions of the protagonists, the referees, are the key element that we will approach through data science techniques. Besides, we provide an intervention system based on Behavioral Economics that improves the design and implementation of federation policies aimed at attracting new talent and retaining those already developing their careers. Objective: The objective of this thesis has been the identification of the factors that determine the referee's decision to continue his career. Based on the results of the research, we propose talent management policies to prolong their careers. Summary: The context in which the referee's career is developed resembles an imperfect market, where the information for the referee to make informed decisions about their career is clearly asymmetric, where the demand for talent is monopolized at the regional level by the respective federations that concede referee's licenses, and where the effects of that monopoly generate inefficiencies in the opportunities for progression and permanence of the referees, which threaten to drain the talent and, therefore, make it impossible to use the resources of the federations efficiently. Consequently, we approached the object of study through Behavioral Economics (Chapter Two), as its theoretical elements, such as heuristics and cognitive biases, are better adapted to the study of the referees’ careers. Likewise, the intervention based on nudges, which Behavioral Economics proposes, is a powerful tool for influencing the referee's decisions to prolong the duration of his career. A project to positively influence the decisions of the referee under the perspective of Behavioral Economics is based on the understanding of the experience that the referee lives and the key factors that make him stay or leave. In the literature on the refereeing career, the three categories that we included in our model (biographical, motivational, and organizational) had been scarcely studied, in favor of variables related to physical preparation and psychological skills, such as decision-making and mental balance, which dominated most of the research on football referees. Therefore, this thesis adds the study of sports professional careers to the application experiences of Behavioral Economics and data science, making concrete proposals regarding the architecture of intervention on the refereeing career that represent the talent management policies established by federations. As for the methods of empirical research employed in the thesis, we carried out a survey with regard to the three types of variables (biographical, motivational, and organizational) that influence the referees’ careers in Madrid, and, complementarily, we used the database of referees registered in the Real Federación de Fútbol de Madrid (RFFM) from 1991 to 2021, including the referees who had participated in categories from Juvenile to the First. The application of data science, mainly through a survival model, has allowed us to contrast the importance of these factors for the case of the RFFM and, as a result, to establish a series of recommendations to be implemented in its talent management policies (Chapter Three). Conclusions: This thesis demonstrates the influence of the following aspects resulting from the contrast of the study hypotheses that we addressed: • Early incorporation into refereeing favors a longer career. • Referees reach university education to a greater extent than the rest of the Madrid population. • The specific potential development programs organized by the RFFM in recent years have not demonstrated a positive effect on the length of the career. • Those referee profiles that present a component of greater competitiveness and rivalry assumption show a longer career duration. • Remuneration favors the length of the career for those referees who show at the beginning of their career that such remuneration is a relevant motivator. • Referees with relatives and close friends in refereeing do not show a longer career, nor does previous experience as a footballer or coach. • Men with family responsibilities show a longer career, this relationship is not detected in the case of women, although sex does not directly affect the length of the career. • Verbal or physical violence against referees is an accelerator of abandonment. • Referees born in the province of Madrid show a longer career. • Peer support affects the length of the career when that support includes training with colleagues regularly. As a result, the RFFM can extract learnings for a better design and implementation of its talent management policies: RECRUITMENT AND SELECTION • In relation to recruitment and selection policies, today the candidates who assume a higher degree of competitiveness compared to other candidates are better prepared to stay longer. • Age of incorporation also has some importance, it being advisable to start their careers at an early age. TRAINING AND DEVELOPMENT • Potential development programs must be reviewed, as existing specific programs do not favor retention, although to be included in these programs is initially motivating. • A high proportion of referees who leave, point to the lack of responses to circumstances raised by the referees, suggesting that a more structured monitoring of the referee's experience, more personalized feedback on their promotion expectations and more effective communication channels will prevent a significant number of dropouts. Internet-related technologies can play an important role in this regard, increasing periodic contact and responses to the needs expressed by the referees. • Policies aimed at promoting training in groups for referees will have positive effects on the duration of their careers, especially using the node that the place of residence represents. REMUNERATION • It is necessary to continue investigating the optimal level of remuneration that can reduce the cost of retaining the referee staff. COMMUNICATION • Only with regard to the permanence of referees and without extending into evident social effects, it is necessary to reinforce social awareness campaigns that reduce abusive and violent behaviors against referees by fans, athletes, and media. WORK-LIFE BALANCE • Federations must take into account the vital experience of university referees to facilitate their permanence, given the high percentage of referees who combine university studies with refereeing. • With regard to compatibility with family life, it is necessary to assess gender policies, given that family responsibilities show that they are not an obstacle to remaining in the referee career but only for men