Una propuesta metodológica para la cuantificación de los aspectos geopolíticos de la seguridad energética
- Javier García-Verdugo Sales 1
- Beatriz Muñoz Delgado 2
- Enrique San Martín Gonzalez 2
-
1
Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia
info
-
2
Universidad Autónoma de Madrid
info
ISSN: 1576-0162
Año de publicación: 2015
Número: 39
Páginas: 45-76
Tipo: Artículo
Otras publicaciones en: Revista de economía mundial
Resumen
This article aims to develop a method of quantitatively estimating the geopolit¬ical risk of energy supply as a rigorous alternative to the use of future scenarios based on subjective probabilities. Using factor analysis, four partial risk factors have been identified (economic, political, social and energy-specific) that were aggregated into a composite Socioeconomic Energy Risk Index (SERI). This indicator of a country's or a corridor's energy security of supply can also be usefully employed in model and scenario building.
Referencias bibliográficas
- Akhonbay, H. (2012): "Saudi Arabia's Energy Policy. A Disciplined Approach to Forward-looking Policymaking," Center for Strategic and International Studies.
- Alhajji, A.F. y J.L. Williams (2003): "Measures of Petroleum Dependence and Vulnerability in OECD Countries," Middle East Economic Survey, 46(16), 21-28.
- Bernanke, D., M. Gertler y M.W. Watson (1997): "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 91-142.
- BMWi-German Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology-y BMU -German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety-(2012): First Monitoring Report "Energy of the future," Summary, BMWi y BMU, Berlin.
- Boersma, T. (2013), "European Energy Security and the Role of Russia," Policy Brief, The German Marshall Fund of the United States.
- Bohi, D.R. y M.A. Toman (1996): The Economics of Energy Security, Boston, Kluwer Academic Publishers.
- Checchi, A., A. Behrens y C. Egenhofer (2009): Long-Term Energy Security Risks for Europe: A Sector-Specific Approach, Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS).
- Cherp, A. (2012): "Defining Energy Security Takes More Than Asking Around," Energy Policy, 48, 841-842.
- CIEP-Clingendael International Energy Programme (2004): Study on Energy Supply Security and Geopolitics. Final Report, CIEP, The Hague, Holland.
- Collier, P. (2007): The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It, Oxford University Press.
- Costantini, V., F Gracceva, A. Markandya y F. Vicini (2007): "Security of Energy Supply: Comparing Scenarios from a European Perspective," Energy Policy, 35(1), 210-226.
- Darbouche H. y Fattouh, B. (2011): The Implications of Arab Uprisings for Oil and Gas Markets, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
- Doukas, H., A. Flamos y J. Psarras (2009): "Risks on Security of Oil & Gas Supply," International scientific Journal: Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning and Policy, London, Taylor & Francis.
- Dreyer, I. y Stang, G. (2014): Energy moves and power shifts: EU foreign Policy and Global Energy Security, Report No 18, EU Institute for Security Studies, Paris.
- ECB-European Central Bank (2004): "Oil Prices and the Euro Area Economy," Monthly Bulletin, November, 51-63.
- EIA-United States Energy Information Administration (2014): "China Country Analysis Brief," consultado en http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data. cfm?fips = CH el 19/02/2014.
- Escribano, G. (2008): "Entre el mercado y la geopolítica: seguridad de abastecimiento y corredores energéticos en la UE," Revista de Economía ICE, 842, 29-44.
- Escribano, G. (2013a): "El escenario energético de América Latina," Economía exterior: estudios de la revista Política Exterior sobre la internacionalización de la economía española, 65, 7-18.
- Escribano, G. (2013b): "A Political Economy Perspective on North Africa's Transitions," Real Instituto Elcano working paper, WP 3/2013.
- Escribano, G. (2014): "La acciõn exterior española en un escenario energético en transformaciõn," Estrategia Exterior Española 2/2014, Real Instituto Elcano.
- Estrada, A. y P. Hernandez de Cos (2008): "El precio del petrõleo y su efecto sobre el producto potencial de la economía," Boletín Económico del Banco de España, octubre.
- European Commission (2001): Green Paper-Towards a European Strategy for the Security of Energy Supply, Luxembourg, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities.
- European Commission (2012): EU Energy in Figures-statistical pocketbook 2012, Luxembourg, Publications Office of the European Union.
- Fattouh, B. (2007): How Secure are Middle East Oil Supplies, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, WPM 33.
- Fattouh, B. y Sen, A. (2013): "The Swing Producer, the US Gulf Coast and the US Benchmarks. The Missing Links," Oxford Energy Comment, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
- Fischer, S. y Geden, O. (2013): "Updating the EU's Energy and Climate Policy. New Targets for the Post-2020 Period," International Policy Analysis, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.
- García-Verdugo, J. y San Martín, E. (2012): "Risk Theory Applied to Energy Security" en Marín-Quemada, J.M., García-Verdugo, J. y Escribano, G. (eds.), Energy security for the EU in the 21st Century. Markets, Geopolitics and Corridors, Routledge, Oxon (Reino Unido) y Nueva York.
- GEA (2012): Global Energy Assessment-Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, Reino Unido y Nueva York (EE.UU.) y International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
- Gnansounou, E. (2008): "Assessing the Energy Vulnerability: Case of Industrialised Countries," Energy Policy, 36, 3734-44.
- Gupta, E. (2008): "Oil Vulnerability Index of Oil-Importing Countries," Energy Policy, 36(3), 1195-1211.
- Hair, J.; R.E. Anderson; R.L. Tatham y W. Black (1998): Multivariate Data Analysis, Prentice Hall (5th Ed.), New York.
- Hamilton, J.D. (2000): "What is an Oil Shock?," NBER Working Paper 7755, June.
- Hamilton, J.D. y A.M. Herrera (2004): "Oil shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behaviour: The role of Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 36 (2), 265-286.
- Hayashi, M. y Hughes, L. (2013): "The Policy Responses to the Fukushima Nuclear Accident and Their Effect on Japanese Energy Security," Energy Policy, Vol. 59, pp. 86-101.
- Hong, S., Bradshaw, C.J.A. y Brook, B.W. (2013): "Evaluating options for the future energy mix of Japan after the Fukushima nuclear crisis," Energy Policy, 56, 418-424.
- IEA-International Energy Agency (2007): World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India insights, OECD/IEA, París.
- IEA-International Energy Agency (2012a): World Energy Outlook 2012, OECD/IEA, París.
- IEA-International Energy Agency (2012b): Key World Energy Statistics 2012, OECD/IEA, París.
- IEA-International Energy Agency (2013a): World Energy Outlook 2013, OECD/IEA, París.
- IEA-International Energy Agency (2013b): Energy Policies of IEA Countries-Germany-2013 Review, OECD/IEA, Paris.
- INDES (2004): "Market-based Options for Security of Energy Supply," Working Paper, No. 1. CEPS, March, Brussels.
- Jewell, J. (2011): "The IEA Model of Short-term Energy Security (MOSES). Primary Energy Sources and Secondary Fuels," IEA working paper, IEA/ OECD, Paris.
- Kendell, J.M. (1998): Measures of Oil Import Dependence, EIA-DOE, 1998.
- Kilian, L. (2008): "A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries," Journal of the European Economic Association, 6(1), 78-121.
- Lahn, G. y Stevens, P. (2011): "Burning Oil to Keep Cool. The Hidden Energy Crisis in Saudi Arabia," Chatham House, The Royal Institute of International Affairs.
- Leduc, S. y K. Sill (2004): "A Quantitative analysis of Oil Price shocks, Systematic Monetary Policy, and Economic Downturns," Journal of Monetary Economics, 51(4), 781-808.
- Le Sueur, J.D. (2014): "Algeria, the Arab Spring, and the Specter of Jihad," Algeria three years after the Arab Spring, Mediterranean Paper Series 2014, The German Marshall Fund of the United States, 9-15.
- Maher, S. (2013): "The Arab Spring and Its Impact on Supply and Production in Global Markets," EUCERS/KAS energy security fellowship 2012-13, EUCERS Strategy paper Nº 4.
- Marin, J.M. y Muñoz, B. (2011): "Affinity and Rivalry: Energy Relations of the EU," International Journal of Energy Sector Management, 5(1),11-38.
- Matea, M.Ll. (2013): "El fondo de titulizaciõn del déficit del sistema electric," Boletín Económico de ICE, Nº 3039,15-24.
- Merlini, C., y Roy, O. (Eds.) (2012): Arab Society in Revolt: The West's Mediterranean Challenge, Brookings Institution Press, Washington.
- Mulaik, S.A. (2009): Foundations of Factor Analysis, Chapman & Hall/CRC Press (2nd Ed.), Atlanta.
- Paillard, C. (2010): "Rethinking Russia: Russia and Europe's Mutual Energy Dependence," Journal of International Affairs, 63(2), 65-84.
- Ratner, M., Belkin, P., Nichol, J. y Woehrel, S. (2013): "Europe's Energy Security: Options and Challenges to Natural Gas Supply Diversification," Congressional Research Service.
- Rodriguez, J. y Rodriguez, E. (2012): "El sector eléctrico español y las energias renovables," Boletín Económico de ICE, Nº 3029, 41-52.
- Roupas, C., A. Flamos y J. Psarras (2009): "EU27 Oil Vulnerability," International Journal of Energy Sector Management, 3(2), 203-218.
- Skinner, R. (2006): Strategies for Greater Energy Security and Resource Security, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, June.
- Sovacool, B.K. y Mukherjee, I. (2011): "Conceptualizing and Measuring Energy Security: A Synthesized Approach," Energy, 36, 5343-5355.
- Sovacool, B.K. y Brown, M. (2010): "Competing Dimensions of Energy Security: An International Perspective," Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 35, 77-108.
- START-National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (2012): Global Terrorism Database [Data file]. Consultado en http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd el 19/02/2014.
- Stern, J.P. (2002): "Security of European Natural Gas Supplies. The Impact of Import Dependence and Liberalization," Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1-36.
- Stevens, P. (2012): "The Arab Uprisings and the International Oil Markets," Energy, Chatham House Briefing Paper, Environment and Resource Governance, EERG 2012/03.
- Torres, N., Afonso, O. y Soares, I. (2013): "A Survey of Literature on the Resource Curse: Critical Analysis of the Main Explanations, Empirical Tests and Resource Proxies," CEF.UP Working Paper 2013-02, Universidad de Oporto.
- UNDP-United Nations Development Program (2000): World Energy Assessment: Energy the Challenge of Sustainability.
- Vivoda, V. (2012): "Japan's Energy Security Predicament Post-Fukushima," Energy Policy, 46, 135-143.
- Volpi, F. (2013): "Algeria versus the Arab Spring," Journal of Democracy, 24(3), 104-115.
- Yergin, D. (2006): "Ensuring Energy Security," Foreign Affairs, 85(2), 69-82.
- Zumve, S., Ingyoroko, M., Akuva 1.1. (2013): "Terrorism in Contemporary Nigeria: A Latent Function of Official Corruption and State Neglect," European Scientific Journal, 9(8), 122-140.